Cone of Uncertainty

Agile Product

Cone of Uncertainty

Cone of Uncertainty reflects the variability of the project through its lifetime. The variability is decreasing as more is known.

Read more

Get PDF

Tags

Agile cone of uncertainty cone of uncertainty agile cone of uncertainty hurricane cone of uncertainty scrum estimation hurricane cone of uncertainty image Infographic Poster Product Product development Scrum the cone of uncertainty

Article

Cone of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is very certain.

At the start of the project, there are a lot of variables that need to be taken into account. All projects have different requirements, different priorities, different people working, or different technologies. These are the reasons why the variables coming into the project are not clear at the beginning of a project. The variability of these factors is reflected in the project variability. The result is that estimates must include the variability. After the project starts and more is known, the variability is decreasing. This phenomenon is called the “Cone of Uncertainty”. A significant narrowing of the Cone occurs during the first 20-30%.

Cone of uncertainty.

Estimation tips

Make a visible list of risks
Inspect and update risks and estimates regularly
Eliminate improbable options as the project progresses
Add a pad to your estimates
Compare and size the project relative to other projects

Resources

construx.com wikipedia.org scrumexpert.com agilenutshell.com techagileleaders.com medium.com

Similar posters

Maker's vs Manager's schedule

Maker's vs Manager's schedule The differences between a maker’s and a manager’s schedules stem from their respective workflows’ distinct nature. Makers rely on uninterrupted time blocks to tackle complex, creative problems requiring deep focus and sustained attention. Managers need flexibility to oversee multiple responsibilities, make decisions, and collaborate effectively across teams. As such, it is essential to thoughtfully assess...

Mission Statement

Mission Statement Long-term organization purpose, values and objectives. It should describe why it matters. This way it contributes to identity creation.

Value Stream Mapping

Value Stream Mapping The Value Stream Mapping is a Lean technique for managing flow and improving processes allowing to track the flow through a process.

Minto Pyramid The Minto Pyramid Principle, a communication framework, advocates for a top-down approach to convey messages effectively

Spotify Health Check

Spotify Health Check The Spotify Health Check is a workshop, where teams assess their project and collaboration using 11 dimensions.

Maslow's Hierarchy Of Needs

Maslow's Hierarchy Of Needs Maslow's hierarchy of needs links basic human needs and desires, emphasizing that survival needs must be met before higher needs.

RACI Matrix RACI Matrix/Chart is the type of responsibility assignment matrix for effective work organization, communicating the responsibilities.

CEDAR Feedback CEDAR is a structured feedback model providing coaching opportunities via repeated revisiting and readjusting of the feedback and the goals.

STATIK Kanban The Systems Thinking Approach To Introducing Kanban (STATIK) is a repeatable way to start with Kanban resulting in continuous improvement.

Data Model Canvas

Data Model Canvas The Data Product Canvas is a framework for developing data products based organized into 10 blocks within 3 domain areas.